A few moderate Republicans are the only reason transgender minors can still get gender-affirming care in Kansas.
The GOP’s legislative supermajority tried to ban the practice until age 18. But conservatives fell two votes short of overriding Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto — thanks to those Republicans.
Kansas Republicans have a veto-proof majority in both the House and Senate. That means they can steamroll Democrats on any issue if they all stand united. They have enough votes to get any bill through both chambers and overcome any veto from the Democratic governor.
Republicans have rallied enough votes to pass a Women’s Bill of Rights, which led to banning gender changes on drivers licenses, bans on transgender women from women’s sports and an abortion measure that is locked up in court fights.
Democrats have tried, and failed, to break the veto-proof conservative majority for over a decade. They think the political shift in Johnson County could make the difference in the November election.
“The Democrats are just sort of steadily encroaching into newer suburbs that, back in the day, voting Democratic would have been unthinkable,” said Michael Smith, a political science professor from Emporia State University.
Every legislative seat is up for election on Nov. 5 — 125 House seats and another 40 in the Senate.
Johnson County is becoming bluer
The fate of the Republican supermajority hinges on Johnson County, which has undergone a dramatic political shift over the past decade.
In 2013, just two Democrats held House seats in Johnson County. Now, 16 of the 26 seats are blue.
President Joe Biden won the county in 2020. The last Democratic president to do that was Woodrow Wilson in 1916. And Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly dominated GOP challenger Derek Schmidt in 2022 by grabbing 60% of the county’s vote — she won the entire state by just 2.2%.
Johnson County is becoming bluer, and there’s still more room to pick up seats.
Democrats would need to flip two seats in the House or three in the Senate to break the supermajority. The more likely path to victory is in the House, which has three times as many seats and more Johnson County options.
Cole Robinson, executive director of the Johnson County Democratic Party, said the shift in Johnson County is not unique to Kansas. Other suburbs across the country are shifting toward Democrats.
That’s partially because of an increasingly partisan political climate. Moderates are leaving office and those who replace them just don’t represent the views of voters, he said.
“The average voter in general is much more centrist than where the current Republican Party is nationally or in the state of Kansas,” Robinson said.
Former Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration left a lasting legacy, he said. But the current legislature’s bills on abortion restrictions, education funding and resistance to expanding Medicaid have some Johnson County voters feeling left out.
Karen Thurlow, a Democratic candidate for a competitive Senate race in southeast Johnson County, is noticing a similar complaint when she knocks on doors. Thurlow said she’s a moderate, and she isn’t selling herself as a far-left liberal.
She said her opponent, Republican state Sen. Kellie Warren, is the one who has drifted too far away from the middle.
“People are tired of the vitriol,” Thurlow said. “They’re tired of the culture wars and they want to see our state continue to move forward.”
Warren didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment.
What about Sedgwick County?
Cities tend to be more Democratic, which would make it seem like the state’s largest city and second largest county are key in breaking the supermajority. But Sedgwick County just isn’t as flippable, two political science professors tell The Beacon.
Smith, from Emporia State, said the mostly white, male-dominated aviation unions are one reason Sedgwick leans Republican. Russell Arben Fox, a political science professor at Friends University, said the county is just more rural and therefore more red.
Wichita itself leans blue and has a lineup of long-serving Democrats, such as Sen. Oletha Faust-Goudeau and Reps. Tom Sawyer and Henry Helgerson.
But large swaths of the county are rural. That means for every Wichita race you see, there’s a Belle Plaine, Andover or Goddard race that matters, Fox said.
Deb Lucia, chair of the Sedgwick County Republican Party, said county residents have Republican values. GOP leadership has passed tax cuts and focused on crime, the cost of housing and inflation. Those are winning issues.
“It’s the core issues we concentrate on as the Republican Party,” she said.
Alexis Simmons, a House candidate in Topeka and communications director for House Democrats, sees more wiggle room across the state.
Democrats contesting competitive districts statewide
Democrats are contesting every district but one that Kelly won when she was reelected in 2022. That includes non-Johnson County districts. Democrats are running in 34 of the 40 Senate races and 92 of the 125 House races.
In the last elections — 2022 for the House and 2020 for the Senate — Democrats lost 10 close races where the winner got less than 52% of the vote.
Some of those races could flip with only 150 more votes.
“That’s a fantastic roadmap,” Simmons said. “I was surprised throughout the legislative session that some of those incumbents did not attempt to moderate their votes and … dug in their heels.”
Simply running in competitive races doesn’t guarantee anything.
Kansas Democrats had similar candidate totals in the 2016 election when every Senate seat was contested and over 90 Democrats were running in the House. The supermajority didn’t break. It also didn’t end in 2020 when another 90-plus House Democratic candidates ran.
Lucia, with the Sedgwick County GOP, is confident Republicans will keep their grip on Kansas politics.
“People have asked, you know, ‘Why do we have a supermajority in Kansas?’” she said. “The main reason is because what the GOP stands for reflects Kansas values.”
This story was originally published by The Beacon, a fellow member of the KC Media Collective.
