SPRINGFIELD – Missouri's two U.S. senators are cautiously optimistic that the state's voters will back key ballot initiatives this year restricting abortion and upholding a more GOP-leaning congressional map.
That assessment comes as Republicans nationally continue to slump in polling and face a midterm election, in which the president's party almost always struggles to prevail.
U.S. Sens. Eric Schmitt and Josh Hawley were on hand for the weekend's Missouri Republican Party's Lincoln Days events in Springfield. Schmitt spoke at the Friday banquet, while Hawley spoke on Saturday morning.
Hawley in particular is focused on a measure known as Amendment 3 that would repeal most of a 2024 abortion rights constitutional amendment and replace it with a ban on the procedure. The 2024 measure was also called Amendment 3.
"I absolutely am going to be involved. And I just think Amendment 3 is so vital to end abortion on demand in Missouri," Hawley said.
The 2026 version of Amendment 3 would provide exceptions for up to 12 weeks of pregnancy in the cases of rape and incest, as well as medical emergencies. It would also place in the constitution a ban on most gender-affirming care for minors.
"We have to fix this. It's just such a mess," Hawley said. "It's dangerous for our kids, and I think it's going to pass."
Abortion rights opponents face two separate challenges.
The first is that nearly 300,000 Missourians who backed President Donald Trump in 2024 also voted to enshrine abortion rights protections in the Missouri Constitution. Some of those voters told St. Louis Public Radio they like Trump on most issues but do not support restrictions on abortion.
The other is that Trump is currently fairly unpopular, with an approval rating hovering around 40%. And if the GOP chief executive's popularity remains stagnant or drops, Democrats may be more motivated to turn out and vote down ballot measures like the 2026 version of Amendment 3.
Hawley said it's possible that Trump voters who backed the 2024 abortion rights amendment didn't realize how expansive it could be to legalize the procedure.
He said he doesn't think "the election is going to be so much about the president who's not going to be on the ballot."
"I think it's going to be about whether people are feeling better and doing better with their families and their job than they were under Joe Biden," Hawley said. "We can't sit back and say, 'Oh, well, the president will fix it.' We need to do stuff. And one of the things we could do is we could start passing the agenda that the president has laid out: cap on credit card interest rates, no more Wall Street banks buying up single-family homes and tariff rebates."
Redistricting also on the horizon
Another ballot item that could draw national attention is a referendum on a congressional map lawmakers approved in 2025.
A group opposed to the redistricting, People Not Politicians, gathered signatures to place the new plan up for a November vote. The map was drawn to oust Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver from his Kansas City-based seat and substantially overhauls St. Louis-area Republican Reps. Ann Wagner and Bob Onder's districts.
Schmitt told St. Louis Public Radio he'd expect both national parties would spend money to sway the referendums. Courts are still mulling the legality of the new map and whether it will be in place for the 2026 midterms.
"I would imagine that if it is on the ballot, that both sides would probably pour resources in to make sure that their folks come out and support their position," Schmitt said.
Schmitt also said that because Missouri won't have a U.S. Senate contest or a governor's race this year, turnout could be lower compared to other states.
"There won't be a lot at the top of the ticket driving turnout, so the issues will matter," Schmitt said. "But I do think those issues are favorable for us, and I expect us to be successful."
While most of the focus this year has been on whether Democrats could control the House, Republicans are facing significant challenges in defending Senate seats in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska.
If Democrats retake both chambers, they could not only block Trump's agenda in his final two years in office but could hold investigations into the president's conduct and his administration.
While keeping the House could be a challenge, Schmitt isn't worried about the Senate.
"You look at the states that are in play, it's just not very likely," Schmitt said.
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