Policy advocates say that 22,000 immigrants in Missouri are projected to lose their legal status by the end of 2028 – and the contraction in the state's workforce could come at a cost to local economies.
Todd Schulte, president of FWD.us, an immigration and criminal justice reform policy think tank, said the Trump administration is not just deporting immigrants – but also stripping legal immigrants of protected status. That group includes a projected 13,000 immigrants in Missouri by the end of 2026 and 22,000 by the end of 2028, according to a recent FWD.us report.
"They're not going to be able to have legal work authorization," he said. "Whether that's the construction industry, whether it's schools who might lose a teacher, what does that mean for all sorts of students and families here?"
Schulte said the immigrants set to lose status faced challenging journeys to get to the US. Immigrants from conflict-ridden countries like Sudan and Ukraine are facing revocations of temporary protected status. Immigrants seeking asylum or special visas to flee conditions like persecution and trafficking are also feeling the impact, Schulte said. And so are DACA recipients, who came to the country as children without documentation.
When thousands of immigrants lose status, they are also taken out of the legal workforce in the state, Schulte said. He said immigrants are projected to lose status work across a span of industries: manufacturing, hospitality, retail, construction, healthcare and education. The largest category, the report said, is manufacturing, which would lose 3,000 workers.
That industry may already be facing a workforce crisis. A report by the Missouri Association of Manufacturers identified workforce shortages as a top concern in the industry, with manufacturers saying they are operating at 73% of capacity due to shortages.
As immigrants lose status, Schulte said some will face deportation or leave the country – but many face challenging obstacles staying in the United States.
"They are dramatically increasing the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States and giving them a choice, which is to work under the table, try not to come into contact (with authorities)," he said.
Michael Duff, a labor law and policy expert at St. Louis University, said the sudden contractions in the workforce will certainly have a negative impact on the regional economy, but he said there are also concerns about labor conditions for immigrants.
"There are all kinds of ways that the employer might treat you (that) might technically be unlawful, but it might be difficult for the government to impose what have been the traditional remedies," he said.
He said labor rights technically cover immigrants, but in the case of violations, immigrants are not entitled to the same legal recourse.
"There is a cloud that hangs over workers that are vulnerable in that way," Duff said.
Schulte said that making immigrants' vulnerability to mistreatment runs contrary to the Trump administration's stated goal of trying to raise wages, or fighting for the "forgotten man."
"You might be able to find some work under the table, and who is that good for? It may be good for an unscrupulous employer who doesn't want to pay minimum wage," he said.
The administration's decision to end protections for Ukrainian immigrants has indeed sparked worry among St. Louisans. The International Institute has also helped resettle over 1,000 Afghan refugees to St. Louis – a demographic similarly thrown in limbo by termination of protected status.
"(St. Louis), in deeply wonderful and imperfect ways, has been revitalized by the contributions of immigrants and refugees, that you say positive population growth and economic growth," Schulte said. "That's a story in St. Louis, but that's a story across the Midwest."
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