A key group that helps Democratic congressional candidates has Missouri's 2nd District on its target radar.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced Tuesday it's including the 2nd District, represented by Ann Wagner, on its Districts in Play list for 2026. It's the first time the committee has targeted Wagner, R-Ballwin, since 2020, and it could be a sign that Democrats are bullish about gaining House seats next year in suburban areas like Missouri's 2nd District.
"Ann Wagner is running scared, and she should be," said Washington state Democratic U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene. "From tanking the economy, gutting Medicaid, abandoning our veterans, to making everything more expensive, she's broken her promises to Missourians, and it's going to cost Wagner her seat. The DCCC is already working to recruit authentic and battle-ready candidates in Missouri who reflect this district and will work to better Missourians' lives, not line Elon Musk's and her D.C. party bosses' pockets."
Wagner campaign spokesman Arthur Bryant said in a statement that she is running for another term and will "shortly announce raising more than three-quarters of a million dollars" from January to late March in her combined campaign accounts.
"She has handily beaten radically liberal DCCC candidates before, and will do it again in 2026," Bryant said. "Generic talking points from national Democrats mean nothing compared to Rep. Wagner's record of success for her neighbors in Missouri's 2nd District."
Wagner has served in Congress for 13 years.
Democrat John Kiehne previously announced he's running for the 2nd Congressional District. Kiehne, a musician and activist from Pacific, has unsuccessfully run for several Franklin and St. Louis county-based state legislative seats since 2018.
Wagner easily defeated then-state Rep. Trish Gunby in 2022 and longtime journalist Ray Hartmann in 2024. She won both times by about 12 percentage points. But a combination of recent closer-than-expected special election results in Florida, the prospect of a shaky economy, and the historic weakness of a president's party in a midterm election could make next year's race closer.
A complex district
In U.S. House races, having backing from either the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee or the National Republican Congressional Committee is critical for any challenger to have a chance to dislodge an incumbent like Wagner.
That's because having DCCC backing unlocks millions of dollars of outside ads and connects candidates with staff members with experience running competitive campaigns.
But even past political foes like former state Sen. Jill Schupp have conceded that Wagner is difficult to defeat, thanks to her prodigious fundraising abilities and her decades of experience working for herself and others in campaigns. As of the end of 2024, Wagner had over $3 million in the bank to spend on her 2026 reelection campaign.
"She's been serving in this role now for a while, and there's a reason for that," Schupp said during a 2022 episode of Politically Speaking. "From my perspective, I don't think it's because she's a great congresswoman. I think it's because she knows how to do that retail kind of politics."
The other big obstacle will be the 2nd District itself.
In 2020, a differently drawn 2nd District was arguably the most closely divided congressional district in the nation — with President Donald Trump only defeating Democrat Joe Biden in it by 115 votes. But it became much less competitive after redistricting in 2022, especially after the GOP-controlled legislature added western St. Charles County and Franklin County.
Even in 2020, Wagner was able to win the St. Louis County portion of the district — which has become much more Democratic since Trump became a fixture in national politics. And after redistricting in 2022, she easily prevailed in the St. Charles, Warren and Franklin county parts of the district by wide margins.
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