The U.S. birth rate has dropped to a historic low. Demographer Ness Sándoval warns St. Louis will be one of the first major cities to feel the economic and social fallout.
"[Missouri] will have to redistrict again because it'll have fewer populations in 2030 [and] 2040," the St. Louis University professor said. "District 1 is going to change. If you look at the population loss in the city and in north [St. Louis] County, it's the largest in the state."
The main driver of population loss in the city, Sándoval said, is a lack of investment and housing opportunities for families with children. Households with no children are coming into the city at a pretty good rate, but the reason the city loses population every year, he added, is that parents don't want to raise their children in the city.
Sándoval estimates that if the region grew at the rate of comparable places in the U.S., it would have 4.2 million people right now. "If [St. Louis] were able to stabilize families with children, the city would be growing."
Instead, the population is around 2.8 million, which he attributes to policy choices like failing to build more housing. "We are 58th in the country today in new housing permits. Last year, we were 47th. We're actually doing a worse job today, knowing that we have this crisis."
Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Detroit face similar population loss challenges. But Detroit, Sándoval said, was able to stem the tide by reimagining the downtown, investing in college education and investing in young families.
"Detroit has captured the imagination of young people. Detroit's still a very old region, and so it still has structural age problems, but we see movement," he said. "[Detroit is] a city that reached bottom, and the region and city came [together] and said, 'We are going to build our city and our region with a purpose, and that purpose is going to be built around young people with children.'"
Sándoval said St. Louis would benefit from following Detroit's lead, both in terms of attracting and supporting families with children and in working toward solutions as a region, rather than a divided city and county.
"In St. Louis, there is pride in provincialism. … 'If my little area is doing fine, that's fine,'" he said. "But these demographic problems are not just the City of St. Louis' problems. These challenges that we see in the city are going to go to our counties. [Detroit is] trying to prepare themselves for this demographic storm. The way you do it is you work together as a region."
"I'm not saying that you have to have a city-county merger," Sándoval added, "but it has to go beyond what we are doing today."
Ness Sándoval discussed St. Louis' population loss — and the advantages the region has — on St. Louis on the Air. Action St. Louis Executive Director Kayla Reed also joined the conversation to discuss how the May 16 tornado exacerbated population decline in north St. Louis and why temporary housing programs are so important to keep affected families as close to their homes and communities as possible.
Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or click the play button below.
Related Event
What: Demography is Destiny with Ness Sándoval
When: Oct. 14
Where: Missouri History Museum, 5700 Lindell Blvd., St. Louis, MO 63112
"St. Louis on the Air" brings you the stories of St. Louis and the people who live, work and create in our region. The show is produced by Miya Norfleet, Emily Woodbury, Danny Wicentowski, Elaine Cha and Alex Heuer. Darrious Varner is our production assistant. The audio engineer is Aaron Doerr.
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