After months of cutting attacks and millions of dollars spent, Missouri Republicans and Democrats finally brought a conclusion to a consequential primary season.
Tuesday’s results could take the politics of both Missouri and St. Louis in markedly different directions. Much of that path will depend on what happens in this November’s general election, which may contain dynamics that weren’t there when Republicans romped to victory in 2016 and 2020.
Did Wesley Bell’s avalanche of money attract Black voters to his side?
There’s been plenty of commentary, and criticism, of the flood of money from pro-Israel groups that sought to boost St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell’s candidacy against Congresswoman Cori Bush. But the big unanswered question was whether that effort would move Black voters to his side, especially since African Americans typically don’t vote a certain way because of a candidate's stance on Israel.
Looking at the ward-by-ward results in St. Louis and St. Louis County, Bell did substantially better in majority African American wards than state Sen. Steve Roberts did against Bush in 2022. And he won almost every St. Louis County township, including heavily African American ones. The ones Bush prevailed in, which contained a majority of Black residents, only went for the congresswoman by a few hundred votes.
It’s clear that enough Black residents voted for Bell for him to win — both because he easily won in the St. Louis County part of the district and was able to hold Bush’s margins in the city down.
“Folks know that I'm going to get things done, and that's exactly what they can expect from me as the next congressman,” said Bell on Wednesday, pointing to his record as prosecutor and as a Ferguson City Council member.
Still, the results show that Black residents in the plurality African American district were starkly divided over Bush and Bell. And it will be up to Bell, who is likely to win in November in the heavily Democratic district, to bridge schisms that emerged from one of the most expensive and contentious congressional races in recent St. Louis history.
How did Kehoe break a GOP gubernatorial logjam?
Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe comfortably prevailed on Tuesday over state Sen. Bill Eigel and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft.
This wasn’t expected a few months ago, when polls showed Ashcroft leading the field by a wide margin. But the combination of Kehoe’s well-funded campaign and endorsements from key elected officials and interest groups was clearly enough to outlast Eigel and Ashcroft.
And perhaps even Kehoe’s biggest vulnerability — his voting record — which some criticized as not conservative enough, was neutralized after former President Donald Trump endorsed all three major candidates.
Kehoe said Wednesday that if he was really too liberal for Republican voters, then Trump likely wouldn’t have backed his campaign.
“I talked to President Trump personally last night. He was very excited,” Kehoe said. “And Eigel and Ashcroft kept saying that [I wasn’t conservative]. But Trump said: ‘No, Kehoe is not some crazy liberal.’ So they were essentially saying Donald Trump was wrong. I think that probably didn't work out so well.”
What do the statewide results say about Parson’s political legacy?
Tuesday's results showed Gov. Mike Parson is not as unpopular with Republicans as some conservative elements of the party assume.
Ashcroft and Eigel spent months lambasting Parson’s budgetary decisions, making the contention that he grew state government at an alarming rate. Both of them lost to Kehoe.
Parson’s two latest statewide appointees, state Treasurer Vivek Malek and Attorney General Andrew Bailey, cruised to victory over well-funded or better-known challengers.
Like any governor, Parson has a legacy that's complicated and probably won’t be fully realized until long after he’s left office. But there’s no doubt that all five of his statewide appointees — Bailey, Malek, Kehoe, U.S. Sen. Eric Schmitt and state Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick — didn’t see their political stock drop because of their association with him.
Can money beat institutional support in the Democratic contest for governor?
House Minority Leader Crystal Quade easily defeated Springfield businessman Mike Hamra, even though Hamra poured in more than $2 million of his own money to fund scores of television ads.
While Quade wasn’t exactly penniless, there was a reasonable concern that she could lose to a better-funded candidate who was on television or radio for a longer period of time.
But Quade had many more endorsements from elected officials and organized labor groups, something that clearly helped her run up large margins of victory in Jackson, Boone and St. Louis counties. She’ll enter the general election campaign as the underdog against Kehoe, but she is banking on increased Democratic turnout from a likely initiative to legalize abortion to help her cause.
“We can look to our neighboring red states of Kansas and Kentucky, where they were able to stop abortion bans and then elect Democratic governors,” Quade said Wednesday.
Can Kunce bounce back from his disappointing 2022?
Kunce overwhelmingly won over state Sen. Karla May, carrying pretty much every one of the state’s counties — with the exception of some lightly populated areas of Missouri’s Bootheel.
He now goes into the general election against Hawley with a new challenge: continuing to prove that he can keep the race competitive and potentially get critical groups like the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to buy into his candidacy.
In the immediate term, Hawley has challenged Kunce to an unmoderated Lincoln-Douglas style debate at the State Fair in Sedalia — on the back of a flatbed truck. Kunce wants to have debates on places like Fox News and even proposed having television stations help broadcast a moderated event in Sedalia.
Does Trump’s endorsement make a difference?
While Trump ended up making multicandidate endorsements in contests for governor, attorney general and lieutenant governor, the GOP presidential nominee endorsed only Bob Onder in his contentious battle in the 3rd Congressional District race against former state Sen. Kurt Schaefer.
Onder likely needed that endorsement since Schaefer received millions of dollars' worth of backup from third-party groups. Schaefer also had the support of retiring Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer, Onder’s longtime rival who spent hundreds of thousands to try to defeat the St. Charles County Republican.
“I don't think there's any endorsement in American politics, maybe in the history of American politics, that can be more impactful than the endorsement of President Trump,” Onder said Wednesday.
The multicandidate endorsement likely made a difference as well. In addition to insulating Kehoe against charges that he was too moderate for a GOP primary, Trump backing Bailey and Will Scharf likely benefited Bailey. That’s because Scharf served as Trump’s lawyer.
What percentage will the winner of the GOP primary for secretary of state get?
Sen. Denny Hoskins outhustled seven other Republican contenders to nab the GOP nomination to succeed Ashcroft with over 24% of the vote. And even though Hoskins had less money than more prominent legislators like House Speaker Dean Plocher, he almost certainly benefited from Eigel’s stronger-than-expected showing.
Should he defeat Democratic state Rep. Barbara Phifer in November, Hoskins' next challenge will be implementing some of his platform — including requiring hand counting of ballots. That’s almost certain to provoke intense opposition among local election officials who will contend that such a requirement would make it take much longer to count votes.
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