Plenty of adjectives describe the 2024 election cycle in Missouri: Wild. Unpredictable. Expensive.
But one stood out as the candidate filing period closed Tuesday: Crowded.
Missouri Republicans and Democrats have large primaries for key statewide and congressional posts. Some of the races feature so many legitimate contenders that it’s basically impossible to determine a frontrunner. And some current officeholders will face real challenges for reelection in August, including two statewide officials who received appointments for treasurer and attorney general.
While the state still leans toward the GOP, how united Missouri Democrats will be after the Aug. 6 intraparty contests could show whether Democratic efforts to rebuild have borne fruit.
Here are seven takeaways from the end of the state and local filing period:
1. A whole new race for secretary of state
When Senate President Pro Tem Caleb Rowden pulled the plug on his bid for secretary of state, the big question in Missouri Politics Land was whether another major GOP candidate would try to fill the Columbia Republican’s void.
The answer: Four viable candidates entered the fray — St. Louis County politico Jamie Corley, House Speaker Dean Plocher, state Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman and Wentzville municipal Judge Mike Carter
Corley is a former communications director and press secretary for several members of Congress who recently tried to get an abortion legalization measure off the ground. Plocher, R-Des Peres, and Coleman, R-Jefferson County, were running for lieutenant governor and Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District, respectively, but switched on Tuesday to the secretary of state’s race. And Carter, who narrowly lost a primary for a state Senate seat in 2022, was a last-minute entrant before the filing deadline.
All four candidates have the potential to be well funded. Corley and Carter could pour their own money into the race, while Plocher has a large campaign fund, and Coleman has proven to be an adept fundraiser. They’ll join a field that includes St. Louis resident Valentina Gomez; Greene County Clerk Shane Schoeller; state Rep. Adam Schwadron, R-St. Charles County, and state Sen. Denny Hoskins, R-Warrensburg.
State Rep. Barbara Phifer, D-Kirkwood, is running against St. Louis residents Haley Jacobson and Monique Williams in the Democratic primary for statewide posts.
2. Appointed statewide officials won’t get a free pass
Four years ago, then-state Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick and then-Attorney General Eric Schmitt didn’t face primary challenges after Gov. Mike Parson appointed them to fill out unexpired terms. Treasurer Vivek Malek and Attorney General Andrew Bailey aren’t as lucky as their predecessors this year.
Bailey will square off against St. Louis County attorney Will Scharf. Scharf, who previously served as an assistant U.S. attorney and policy director for Gov. Eric Greitens, has more than a million dollars in his campaign account. He’s also served as an attorney for former President Donald Trump, which could be a useful attribute in a GOP primary.
Bailey has chastised Scharf as an out-of-touch elitist, derisively calling him ‘Wall Street Willy.’ The attorney general has also sought to raise his profile with lawsuits against Media Matters, a Washington, D.C.-based progressive media watchdog group, and emergency rules that would have greatly restricted adults from accessing hormone therapy or gender transition surgery. He's stocked up on campaign money for his battle against Scharf.
Treasurer races are generally lower profile than other statewide posts, but Malek will have to get past four Republicans — House Budget Chairman Cody Smith, R-Carthage; state Sen. Andrew Bailey, R-Manchester; Springfield attorney Lori Rook; St. Joseph resident Tina Goodrick, and Berkeley resident Karan Pujji — to win a full four-year term.
Democrats will have a much easier choice in August: Elad Gross was the only Democratic candidate who filed for attorney general, while Mark Osmack, who ran for Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District in 2018, will be the party’s sole treasurer nominee.
3. No last-minute challenger in race to take on Hawley
On the final day of filing in 2022, Democratic Senate hopeful Lucas Kunce received a not-so-fun surprise when Trudy Busch Valentine jumped into the ring. The member of St. Louis' Anheuser-Busch family ultimately beat Kunce after outspending him.
Kunce is back this year but no last-minute challenger. He’ll face state Sen. Karla May, D-St. Louis, Columbia resident December Harmon and St. Louis resident Mita Biswas in the August primary. The winner will face U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley.
On paper, Kunce is the clear favorite in the race since he’s raised nearly $5.5 million and received endorsements from a bevy of labor unions. He’s also been in the race longer and may have more name recognition because of his unsuccessful 2022 bid.
May, though, notes that she’s won before when she’s been outspent — including in 2018 when she defeated state Sen. Jake Hummel. Kunce already has some high-profile backers from May’s backyard, including St. Louis County Councilwoman Shalonda Webb and state Rep. Rasheen Aldridge.
Most national elections publications believe Hawley is favored for a second term, but the GOP lawmaker has said he expects an expensive and competitive reelection bid.
4. Governor’s race to be competitive — on both sides
The major candidates on the GOP side include Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel. All three have been running for the post for months and have raised millions of dollars collectively for what’s expected to be a combative primary.
Democrats will also have a competitive primary: House Minority Leader Crystal Quade, D-Springfield, will take on Springfield businessman Mike Hamra. Hamra has already raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for his gubernatorial bid, while Quade received the backing of labor unions and scores of Democratic lawmakers.
Several news outlets, including KSDK and the Kansas City Star, have reported that Hamra voted in Illinois in 2020 — sparking questions about his eligibility to run for governor. But at least one elections expert, attorney Chuck Hatfield, predicted in both articles Hamra will likely survive any legal challenge based on past legal precedent.
One person who didn’t get to file for governor was state Rep. Sarah Unsicker. The Shrewsbury Democrat, whose social media posts drew rebuke from her party, said she tried to file on Tuesday but was once again blocked from the ballot. Missouri Democratic Party officials refused to accept Unsicker's filing fee on the first day of filing.
5. Wagner won’t face much GOP competition
In the waning days of filing, eyes turned to the GOP primary for the 2nd Congressional District after Hawley launched a blistering attack on U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner, R-Ballwin, over efforts to compensate St. Louis-area residents for radioactive waste exposure.
Because the 2nd District became much more Republican after the 2022 redistricting cycle, Wagner could have been vulnerable in a primary against a candidate who would have run to her right. Wagner has been supportive of providing military assistance to Ukraine and voted to certify the 2020 presidential election.
But Tuesday’s deadline came and went with Wagner facing only nominal opposition. One possible opponent, state Sen. Nick Schroer of Defiance, pulled a clever head fake when he released a video that made it seem like he was announcing for office — but instead was joining a new law firm.
Assuming Wagner gets past Town and Country resident Peter Pfeifer in August, she’ll face the winner of the Democratic primary between Ray Hartmann and Chuck Sommers. Hartmann is the more well-known candidate of the pair, having spent decades in the public eye as a journalist.
Congresswoman Cori Bush, who represents St. Louis, will have to fend off a tough challenge from St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell and former state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal to return to Washington, D.C.
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