Congressman Emanuel Cleaver said filing for reelection Tuesday was a weird experience with a redistricting map in limbo.
The Kansas City Democrat represents the 5th Congressional District, which Missouri Republicans transformed last year into a GOP-leaning seat. But with a legal case over whether that redistricting plan is in effect unresolved, Cleaver isn't sure whether he'll face an easy reelection bid or the hardest campaign of his life.
"The main reason I say weird is because there will probably be a number of people who will file to represent a constituency in Missouri without having any idea what the constituency might look like," Cleaver said.
As hundreds of candidates for statewide, congressional and state legislative posts came to Jefferson City to file, last year's mid-decade redistricting loomed large over Missouri's election cycle. At the behest of President Donald Trump, Republicans not only overhauled Cleaver's seat, they made major changes to districts in the St. Louis area.
Secretary of State Denny Hoskins has said the 2025 map is in effect. But the ACLU of Missouri sued, contending the new plan never went into effect after anti-redistricting activists submitted signatures to place the map up for a November 2026 vote. As of Tuesday, Cole County Judge Brian Stumpe hasn't made a ruling on the ACLU lawsuit.
Hoskins said that no matter what Stumpe rules, it will almost certainly be appealed. He also said that because congressional candidates are not required to live in the district they seek to represent, there's no harm in someone filing before the court decision is finalized.
"The only thing that I have under my control is which map we're filing under now, and that's the new Missouri First map," Hoskins said, referring to the map lawmakers passed in 2025.
For 5th District contenders, the outcome of the case over which map is in effect now has national ramifications.
If courts ultimately rule that the 2022 map has always been in effect and that it remains in effect for the 2026 election, then Cleaver will likely prevail in a 5th District that is heavily Democratic. If the 2025 map is in place, then Republicans may have the edge in November.
"I think there's a great deal of confusion," said former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks, who filed to run as a Republican for the seat. "There's a lot of inside baseball when it comes to these maps. It was passed in a special session. This is the timeline that we have. And so, just explaining it becomes part of our job as future representatives and politicians."
A court ruling that says the 2022 map is in effect would be a major blow to Trump and congressional Republicans, who sparked a scramble to redraw congressional lines when the president pressured Texas to redistrict last year. Missouri and North Carolina followed suit to help the GOP, while Ohio produced a more Republican-leaning map.
California voters approved a plan to carve more Democratic-leaning districts, while a Utah court drew a more Democratic map. Virginia, Maryland and New York may redraw districts to help Democrats, while Florida may overhaul its lines to assist the GOP.
"I don't particularly believe in tit for tat, there's a little question in my mind that this is going to set a dangerous precedent," Cleaver said. "And so, if a Democratic president is in office and it looks like he or she is going to lose the majority, they just do a mid-decade redistricting. And it's going to be unfair then, as it is unfair now."
Bell and Bush primed for a rematch
U.S. Rep. Wesley Bell, D-St. Louis County, will once again face the person he defeated in the 2024 Democratic primary – former Congresswoman Cori Bush.
Bell defeated Bush by about 5.5 percentage points in one of the most expensive congressional primaries in American history. Groups supportive of Israel spent millions to defeat Bush, who became one of the most prominent congressional critics of the country's government.
Bush said Tuesday that Democratic voters are becoming fed up with groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. She said Democratic voters in New Jersey, for instance, soundly rejected candidates supported by AIPAC and instead are primed to elect Analilia Mejia – who, like Bush, has spoken out against Israel's military action in Gaza.
"The tide has already turned, and people are saying no," Bush said. "They want to be the ones to pick their representatives. And so, whether that money filters into the community or not, I think the community is also going to call out any candidate who is accepting that money."
Bell dismissed the idea that he's vulnerable because pro-Israel groups spent money in 2024 to help him defeat Bush.
"Voters in our district are worried about the cost of living," Bell said. "They're worried about health care costs. If you don't have anything to run on, well, you got to create something. And that's what other folks in the race are doing."
While the 1st District changed under the 2025 redistricting plan, it's still heavily Democratic. But both Bush and Bell are keeping an eye on whether the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down part of the Voting Rights Act, which could allow lawmakers to significantly reduce the 1st District's African American population.
Both said they would fight any effort to try to dismantle the 1st District.
"It's not about me, it's about voters, all voters, having a voice," Bell said.
Bush said: "When I get back in the seat, they will have a fighter to fight. And I'm going to pull every lever, use every tool, to fight them back."
Eye on the state legislature
With only the auditor's office up for grabs this year among statewide offices, there could be more focus on state legislative contests.
House Minority Leader Ashley Aune, D-Kansas City, said she's hoping a dismal national environment could allow her party to make gains – perhaps enough to break the GOP supermajority. That's when a party has at least 109 members to override a gubernatorial veto.
"There's been a lot of growing frustration over the last few years about Republicans voting against the will of their own voters," said Aune, pointing to how Republicans overturned voter-approved paid sick leave requirements and placed a measure on the ballot to repeal a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights.
"These are all things that Missourians are starting to pay attention to and get really frustrated by," Aune said.
St. Louis and St. Charles counties could be major battlegrounds – along with Springfield and parts of Jackson County.
State Rep. Jaclyn Zimmermann, D-St. Louis County, said she's heard from more constituents about how unhappy they are about the way the federal and state governments are operating.
"So it is definitely a different vibe this year, even from last year, about how unhappy people are with the way things are going," Zimmerman said.
St. Louis County Republicans contend they can withstand national headwinds.
State Rep. Brad Christ, R-St. Louis County, said his party is stronger going into a tough election cycle, primarily because it's clamped down on the infighting that's defined legislative sessions over the past few years.
"I think we're very united," Christ said. "We had a great productive session (in 2025), probably the most productive session we've had in decades."
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