Missouri Republicans have had almost total control over the state’s government and politics since 2016, and that may not change after Tuesday — especially if Democrats can’t make breakthroughs in rural and suburban parts of the state.
But Tuesday’s elections could provide a blow to an issue that has helped the party win more support in Missouri — abortion restrictions.
Here are some key things to look for going into Tuesday’s election in Missouri:
Will Amendment 3 show that a GOP-leaning state can embrace abortion rights?
On the surface, it seems odd that a state like Missouri that will vote for Donald Trump comfortably will also enshrine abortion rights into its constitution.
But even Republicans are conceding that’s a strong possibility, given Amendment 3’s massive financial advantage and solid public polling results. And if abortion rights proponents are successful, it would serve as a rebuke to Missouri Republicans who enacted one of the most restrictive abortion bans in the country.
But back in 2006, a measure protecting embryonic stem cell research barely passed even though supporters outspent opponents by a huge margin. And in the last week, the anti-Amendment 3 campaign received some sizable checks — money that could help energize socially conservative and religious voters who feel abortion is morally wrong.
Can Kamala Harris turn back the clock on Democratic presidential performance?
There is no scenario in which Trump doesn’t win Missouri. The state shed its battleground status after 2008, and Kamala Harris hasn’t made much of an effort to pull the state’s 10 electoral votes into her column.
But that doesn’t mean the results of the presidential race are insignificant for Missouri Democrats. One of the big reasons they’ve lost so much ground on a statewide level is that Trump won the state by gigantic margins in 2016 and 2020. And if he wins in 2024 by anywhere from 15 to 19 percentage points, it will be difficult for any statewide candidate to prevail.
So if Harris can narrow her margin of defeat to around 10 percentage points, which was basically how much Barack Obama lost to Mitt Romney by in 2012, that could benefit statewide and state legislative Democrats. And while Trump still possesses strong support in some rural and suburban counties, Harris could drive up Democratic turnout among female and Black voters compared to the last two election cycles.
One of the big bright spots of Biden’s 2020 Missouri performance was how he broke 60% of the vote in St. Louis County. And while his strong showing didn’t necessarily cause prominent St. Louis County Republicans to lose that year, it did correspond with a broader national trend of college educated white voters swinging toward the Democratic Party.
Will Amendment 3’s coattails help Missouri Democrats?
Besides Trump backlash, abortion rights could also drive Democratic turnout in suburban parts of the state.
Most public polling shows Republicans winning statewide contests without too much trouble even though Amendment 3 is also breaking 50% of the vote. There are many theories about why that could be the case, including the fact that a small minority of Missouri Republicans support abortion rights.
Where Amendment 3’s impact could be far greater are in competitive state legislative districts, particularly the 15th Senate District race between Republican David Gregory and Democrat Joe Pereles. If Amendment 3 ends up passing in historically Republican places like Chesterfield and Ballwin, then it may benefit Pereles — who made his support for abortion rights a critical aspect of his campaign.
Democrats could also make gains in the Missouri House, perhaps enough to break the GOP supermajority there for the first time in more than a decade.
Can Kunce knock off Hawley without help from national Democrats?
One of the easiest ways to decipher if a congressional race is competitive is if campaign committees linked to the Democratic or Republican parties are spending lots of money to help a candidate.
That’s not happening in Missouri’s U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Josh Hawley and Democrat Lucas Kunce. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee passed over Missouri and instead chose to assist candidates running in Texas and Florida.
Kunce’s ads talk about how he’s not taking money from “party bosses” — a reference to the lack of DSCC support. And he said last week that a good result on Tuesday could show that conventional wisdom about federal elections is wrong.
“I take no money from corporate PACs, no money from federal lobbyists, no money from Big Pharma executives and several others. And, you know, the Democrat illuminati thought that that was stupid, right?” Kunce said. “And they didn't think that that was possible. We've proven that's wrong.”
Did Hawley’s aggressive posture pay off?
Hawley isn’t treating his race against Kunce as a cakewalk.
He’s aggressively attacked Kunce in ads, at debates, in speeches and even at the Missouri State Fair. When asked in mid-October if his aggressive posture was a warm-up for him to a run for president in 2028, Hawley laughed and said: “This is a very competitive race.”
Kunce outraised Hawley throughout the 2024 election cycle.
“I mean, they have dumped so much money into the state,” Hawley said of groups supporting Kunce. “All you have to do is turn on your TV.”
Can any statewide Democrat piece together their geographic coalition?
Missouri Democrats are at a structural disadvantage in statewide races, because they’ve lost so much ground in rural and suburban counties.
There is no path to victory for candidates like Kunce or Democratic gubernatorial nominee Crystal Quade if they’re getting crushed in sparsely populated counties or fast-growing suburbs like Jefferson County.
Given that most Republican statewide candidates have more money than their Democratic counterparts, piecing together that elusive rural, suburban and urban coalition could be challenging — especially with Trump likely winning the state.
But it will be worth watching whether Kunce is able to make inroads in historically Democratic areas or if Quade, who is from Springfield, can accelerate some Democratic growth in parts of the state that Republicans typically dominated.
Will legislators have to go back to the drawing board on sports betting?
While Amendment 3 is the most high-profile initiative on the ballot this year, the fiercest battle from a financial perspective is over whether to legalize sports betting.
Amendment 2 backers received millions from sports betting apps DraftKings and FanDuel and significant support from professional sports teams. That seemed to place the measure on a path to passing.
But then a number of casinos associated with Caesars funded a group that helped produce ads questioning whether proceeds from Amendment 2 will go toward education.
Polling shows the vote on the amendment will be close.
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