As the 2026 midterm elections head toward the finish line Tuesday, the race in the St. Louis area's 2nd District between Republican Ann Wagner and Democrat Fred Wellman is gaining national notice.
Several publications that monitor congressional contests now see the district as much more competitive than in years past. Silver Bulletin, for instance, recently placed it as the most competitive contest in the country — while Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race into "toss-up" territory."
"It was part of a bucket of other races, about a half-dozen across the country, that we wanted to flag as potential seats that could flip if Democrats really kind of blow things out," said Kyle Kondik, manager editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
The 2nd District consists of largely suburban terrain in St. Louis and St. Charles counties. St. Louis County has trended toward the Democratic Party over the last several election cycles, while Democrats are more organized in St. Charles County. But it also includes some fairly rural areas in Warren and Franklin counties, which have voted solidly for the GOP.
Silver Bulletin shows that Democrats are leading Republicans in congressional races by around 8.7 percentage points. Kondik notes that President Donald Trump won the 2nd District by about 8 points in 2024.
"It's a terrible environment out there for Republicans," Kondik said. "And so I think at the very least, I think this is going to be a pretty close race."
One other sign that the race is more competitive than usual is how Wagner is campaigning for reelection. Her ads in 2022 and 2024 didn't mention her Democratic opponent often — while a great deal of her ads in 2026 are lambasting Wellman.
"You have to define your opponent, so that the people understand and don't think that he may be something that he's not," Wagner said on a recent episode of St. Louis Public Radio's "Politically Speaking" podcast.
Wellman said Wagner's posture this cycle shows she's worried that she could be swept under a wave of discontentment against Republicans.
"She cannot run about the rising costs. She can't talk about the corruption, and she certainly can't talk about the chaos," Wellman said. "So she has to attack me."
Other Missouri congressional races include:
- In the St. Louis- and St. Louis County-based 1st District, Congressman Wesley Bell is squaring off against Republican Paul Berry III. The 1st District is heavily Democratic, but the GOP has openly discussed redrawing the seat in 2027 to be winnable for Republicans — which is now possible thanks to a U.S. Supreme Court case weakening minority-majority districts.
- In the north Missouri-based 6th District, Republican Chris Sitgall is running against Democrat Josh Smead. Stigall won a hotly contested GOP primary against Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett in August. Smead has raised enough money to run television ads and go on a bus tour across the district. The winner will succeed Congressman Sam Graves, a Tarkio Republican who is not running for reelection.
- Republican Congressman Bob Onder is seeking reelection against Democrat Bethany Mann in the 3rd District. Onder has been representing the district since 2025. It takes in portions of St. Charles and Jefferson counties along with some mid-Missouri counties. The seat is solidly Republican, though Democrats have sought to make inroads in the St. Charles County portion of the district.
- In the southeast Missouri-based 8th District, Republican Congressman Jason Smith is facing Democrat Chris Reichard. The 8th District is the most GOP-leaning seat in Missouri, though observers may be watching the results to see if Republicans are losing some popularity in rural parts of the state.
Missouri is using congressional lines approved in 2022, since opponents of a Trump-backed map passed in 2025 gathered enough signatures to put the plan up for a referendum on Tuesday.
Copyright 2026 St. Louis Public Radio
